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Bandırmaspor vs Iğdır FK — 1. Lig 2018

Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Iğdır FK
Iğdır FK
4/14/20251. Lig1. Lig · Round 34Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bandırmaspor43%
×Draw26%
Iğdır FK31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bandırmaspor
1.44
Iğdır FK
1.20

Bandırmaspor creates 20% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 38 away

creates per match

Bandırmaspor
1.54
Iğdır FK
1.34

allows per match

Bandırmaspor
1.05
Iğdır FK
1.34

finishing

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par
Iğdır FK+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandırmaspor ↓

Iğdır FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bandırmaspor or draw
69%
Bandırmaspor or Iğdır FK
74%
Draw or Iğdır FK
57%

Winning margin

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+
20%
Iğdır FK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals
76%
Bandırmaspor 2+ goals
42%
Bandırmaspor 3+ goals
18%
Iğdır FK 1+ goals
70%
Iğdır FK 2+ goals
34%
Iğdır FK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)
58%
Iğdır FK (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandırmaspor at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.05 · 112 matches

Iğdır FK away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandırmaspor attack 1.54 + Iğdır FK defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.44

Iğdır FK attack 1.34 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bandırmaspor scores more
43%
level
26%
Iğdır FK scores more
31%

Bandırmaspor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bandırmaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Bandırmaspor 1–1 Iğdır FK

Bandırmaspor and Iğdır FK drew 1-1 in 1. Lig on April 14, 2025.

The match was played at Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı in Balıkesir.