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Bandırmaspor vs Güzide Gebzespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Güzide Gebzespor
Güzide Gebzespor
11/4/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundBandırma 17 Eylül Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bandırmaspor61%
×Draw19%
Güzide Gebzespor20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bandırmaspor
2.38
Güzide Gebzespor
1.32

Bandırmaspor creates 80% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Bandırmaspor
2.33
Güzide Gebzespor
1.43

allows per match

Bandırmaspor
1.22
Güzide Gebzespor
2.43

finishing

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par
Güzide Gebzespor+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandırmaspor ↓

Güzide Gebzespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Bandırmaspor or draw
80%
Bandırmaspor or Güzide Gebzespor
81%
Draw or Güzide Gebzespor
39%

Winning margin

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+
39%
Güzide Gebzespor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals
91%
Bandırmaspor 2+ goals
68%
Bandırmaspor 3+ goals
42%
Güzide Gebzespor 1+ goals
73%
Güzide Gebzespor 2+ goals
38%
Güzide Gebzespor 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)
75%
Güzide Gebzespor (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandırmaspor at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Güzide Gebzespor away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandırmaspor attack 2.33 + Güzide Gebzespor defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.38

Güzide Gebzespor attack 1.43 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bandırmaspor scores more
61%
level
19%
Güzide Gebzespor scores more
20%

Bandırmaspor at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bandırmaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bandırmaspor vs Güzide Gebzespor

Bandırmaspor beat Güzide Gebzespor 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı in Bandırma.