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Bandırmaspor vs Etimesgut SK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
AET
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Etimesgut SK
Etimesgut SK
9/25/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundBandırma 17 Eylül Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bandırmaspor64%
×Draw19%
Etimesgut SK17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bandırmaspor
2.29
Etimesgut SK
1.11

Bandırmaspor creates 106% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bandırmaspor
2.33
Etimesgut SK
1.00

allows per match

Bandırmaspor
1.22
Etimesgut SK
2.25

finishing

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par
Etimesgut SK+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandırmaspor ↓

Etimesgut SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bandırmaspor or draw
83%
Bandırmaspor or Etimesgut SK
81%
Draw or Etimesgut SK
36%

Winning margin

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+
41%
Etimesgut SK wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals
90%
Bandırmaspor 2+ goals
66%
Bandırmaspor 3+ goals
40%
Etimesgut SK 1+ goals
67%
Etimesgut SK 2+ goals
30%
Etimesgut SK 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)
79%
Etimesgut SK (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandırmaspor at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Etimesgut SK away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandırmaspor attack 2.33 + Etimesgut SK defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.29

Etimesgut SK attack 1.00 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Bandırmaspor scores more
64%
level
19%
Etimesgut SK scores more
17%

Bandırmaspor at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Bandırmaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Bandırmaspor 1–1 Etimesgut SK

Bandırmaspor and Etimesgut SK drew 1-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı in Bandırma.