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Bandırmaspor vs Darıca Gençlerbirliği — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
11/25/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundBandırma 17 Eylül Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bandırmaspor52%
×Draw22%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bandırmaspor
1.98
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
1.36

Bandırmaspor creates 46% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Bandırmaspor
2.33
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
1.50

allows per match

Bandırmaspor
1.22
Darıca Gençlerbirliği
1.63

finishing

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par
Darıca Gençlerbirliği+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandırmaspor ↓

Darıca Gençlerbirliği →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bandırmaspor or draw
74%
Bandırmaspor or Darıca Gençlerbirliği
78%
Draw or Darıca Gençlerbirliği
48%

Winning margin

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+
30%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals
86%
Bandırmaspor 2+ goals
59%
Bandırmaspor 3+ goals
31%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği 1+ goals
74%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği 2+ goals
39%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)
66%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandırmaspor at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Darıca Gençlerbirliği away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandırmaspor attack 2.33 + Darıca Gençlerbirliği defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.98

Darıca Gençlerbirliği attack 1.50 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bandırmaspor scores more
52%
level
22%
Darıca Gençlerbirliği scores more
26%

Bandırmaspor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bandırmaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bandırmaspor vs Darıca Gençlerbirliği

Darıca Gençlerbirliği beat Bandırmaspor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on November 25, 2020.

The match was played at Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı in Bandırma.