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Bandırmaspor vs Ankaraspor — 1. Lig 2018

Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ankaraspor
Ankaraspor
12/19/20201. Lig1. Lig · Round 15Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Bandırmaspor47%
×Draw26%
Ankaraspor27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bandırmaspor
1.50
Ankaraspor
1.08

Bandırmaspor creates 39% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 52 away

creates per match

Bandırmaspor
1.54
Ankaraspor
1.10

allows per match

Bandırmaspor
1.05
Ankaraspor
1.46

finishing

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par
Ankaraspor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandırmaspor ↓

Ankaraspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bandırmaspor or draw
73%
Bandırmaspor or Ankaraspor
74%
Draw or Ankaraspor
53%

Winning margin

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+
23%
Ankaraspor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals
78%
Bandırmaspor 2+ goals
44%
Bandırmaspor 3+ goals
19%
Ankaraspor 1+ goals
66%
Ankaraspor 2+ goals
29%
Ankaraspor 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)
63%
Ankaraspor (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandırmaspor at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.05 · 112 matches

Ankaraspor away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.46 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandırmaspor attack 1.54 + Ankaraspor defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ankaraspor attack 1.10 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bandırmaspor scores more
47%
level
26%
Ankaraspor scores more
27%

Bandırmaspor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bandırmaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bandırmaspor vs Ankaraspor

Bandırmaspor beat Ankaraspor 2-1 in 1. Lig on December 19, 2020.

The match was played at Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı in Bandırma.