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Bandırmaspor vs Alanya 1221 FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Bandırmaspor
Bandırmaspor
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Alanya 1221 FK
Alanya 1221 FK
R. Bobadilla 73'
M. Saymak 69'
A. Özışıkyıldız 4'
E. Taştan 88'
11/1/2023Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundBandırma 17 Eylül Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bandırmaspor66%
×Draw18%
Alanya 1221 FK16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bandırmaspor
2.42
Alanya 1221 FK
1.11

Bandırmaspor creates 118% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Bandırmaspor
2.33
Alanya 1221 FK
1.00

allows per match

Bandırmaspor
1.22
Alanya 1221 FK
2.50

finishing

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par
Alanya 1221 FK+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandırmaspor ↓

Alanya 1221 FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bandırmaspor or draw
84%
Bandırmaspor or Alanya 1221 FK
82%
Draw or Alanya 1221 FK
34%

Winning margin

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+
44%
Alanya 1221 FK wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals
91%
Bandırmaspor 2+ goals
69%
Bandırmaspor 3+ goals
43%
Alanya 1221 FK 1+ goals
67%
Alanya 1221 FK 2+ goals
30%
Alanya 1221 FK 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)
80%
Alanya 1221 FK (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandırmaspor at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Alanya 1221 FK away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandırmaspor attack 2.33 + Alanya 1221 FK defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.42

Alanya 1221 FK attack 1.00 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Bandırmaspor scores more
66%
level
18%
Alanya 1221 FK scores more
16%

Bandırmaspor at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Bandırmaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
A. Özışıkyıldız
46'
R. Bobadilla← M. Yiğit
57'
E. Bahçeli← H. Kaya
57'
Y. Özdemi̇r← İ. Güler
69'
M. Saymak
70'
D. Davas← A. Özışıkyıldız
70'
M. Özcan← M. Saymak
70'
K. Harris← C. Soukou
73'
R. Bobadilla
78'
E. Çakaltarla← A. Alkan
78'
E. Taştan← E. Küç
84'
H. Kavdır← K. Gündoğdu
88'
E. Taştan

Statistics

BandırmasporAlanya
Overview
6Corners2

Türkiye Kupası: Bandırmaspor 3–1 Alanya 1221 FK

Bandırmaspor beat Alanya 1221 FK 3-1 in Türkiye Kupası on November 1, 2023.

Goals: A. Özışıkyıldız (4'), M. Saymak (69'), R. Bobadilla (73'), E. Taştan (88').

The match was played at Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı in Bandırma.