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Banat Girls W vs Universitatea Galaţi W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Banat Girls W
Banat Girls W
FT
10 – 1
Universitatea Galaţi W
Universitatea Galaţi W
5/15/2022Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 8Stadionul Comunal Comloșu Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Banat Girls W73%
×Draw14%
Universitatea Galaţi W13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banat Girls W
3.52
Universitatea Galaţi W
1.52

Banat Girls W creates 132% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 31 away

creates per match

Banat Girls W
2.24
Universitatea Galaţi W
0.74

allows per match

Banat Girls W
2.29
Universitatea Galaţi W
4.81

finishing

Banat Girls W+0.00on par
Universitatea Galaţi W+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banat Girls W ↓

Universitatea Galaţi W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–17%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Banat Girls W or draw
87%
Banat Girls W or Universitatea Galaţi W
86%
Draw or Universitatea Galaţi W
27%

Winning margin

Banat Girls W wins by 2+
55%
Universitatea Galaţi W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Banat Girls W 1+ goals
97%
Banat Girls W 2+ goals
86%
Banat Girls W 3+ goals
66%
Universitatea Galaţi W 1+ goals
78%
Universitatea Galaţi W 2+ goals
45%
Universitatea Galaţi W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Banat Girls W (draw refunded)
85%
Universitatea Galaţi W (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banat Girls W at home — creates 2.24, concedes 2.29 · 45 matches

Universitatea Galaţi W away — creates 0.74, concedes 4.81 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banat Girls W attack 2.24 + Universitatea Galaţi W defence 4.81 → ÷2 → 3.52

Universitatea Galaţi W attack 0.74 + Banat Girls W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Banat Girls W scores more
73%
level
14%
Universitatea Galaţi W scores more
13%

Banat Girls W at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Banat Girls W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Banat Girls W 10–1 Universitatea Galaţi W

Banat Girls W beat Universitatea Galaţi W 10-1 in Liga 1 Feminin on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Comunal Comloșu Mare in Comloșu Mare.