Banat Girls W 2–3 Fairplay Bucureşti W

Banat Girls W

FT

2 – 3

Fairplay Bucureşti W

11/7/2020

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 8Stadionul Mircea Chivu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Banat Girls W60%

×Draw17%

Fairplay Bucureşti W23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Banat Girls WExpected goals in this matchFairplay Bucureşti W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.06

1.90

Banat Girls W

3.06

Fairplay Bucureşti W

1.90

Banat Girls W creates 61% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 32 away

2.24

creates per match

1.50

2.29

allows per match

3.88

creates per match

Banat Girls W

2.24

Fairplay Bucureşti W

1.50

allows per match

Banat Girls W

2.29

Fairplay Bucureşti W

3.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banat Girls W+0.00on par

Fairplay Bucureşti W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banat Girls W ↓

Fairplay Bucureşti W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–24%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

53%47%

Double chance

Banat Girls W or draw

77%

Banat Girls W or Fairplay Bucureşti W

83%

Draw or Fairplay Bucureşti W

40%

Winning margin

Banat Girls W wins by 2+

41%

Fairplay Bucureşti W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Banat Girls W 1+ goals

95%

Banat Girls W 2+ goals

80%

Banat Girls W 3+ goals

57%

Fairplay Bucureşti W 1+ goals

85%

Fairplay Bucureşti W 2+ goals

56%

Fairplay Bucureşti W 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Banat Girls W (draw refunded)

72%

Fairplay Bucureşti W (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banat Girls W at home — creates 2.24, concedes 2.29 · 45 matches

Fairplay Bucureşti W away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.88 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banat Girls W attack 2.24 + Fairplay Bucureşti W defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 3.06

Fairplay Bucureşti W attack 1.50 + Banat Girls W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Banat Girls W scores more

60%

level

17%

Fairplay Bucureşti W scores more

23%

Banat Girls W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Banat Girls W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff