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Banat Girls W vs Arad W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Banat Girls W
Banat Girls W
FT
0 – 3
Arad W
Arad W
3/12/2022Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 2Stadionul Comunal Comloșu Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Banat Girls W38%
×Draw20%
Arad W42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banat Girls W
2.15
Arad W
2.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 32 away

creates per match

Banat Girls W
2.24
Arad W
2.19

allows per match

Banat Girls W
2.29
Arad W
2.06

finishing

Banat Girls W+0.00on par
Arad W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banat Girls W ↓

Arad W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Banat Girls W or draw
58%
Banat Girls W or Arad W
80%
Draw or Arad W
62%

Winning margin

Banat Girls W wins by 2+
21%
Arad W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Banat Girls W 1+ goals
88%
Banat Girls W 2+ goals
63%
Banat Girls W 3+ goals
36%
Arad W 1+ goals
89%
Arad W 2+ goals
65%
Arad W 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Banat Girls W (draw refunded)
48%
Arad W (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banat Girls W at home — creates 2.24, concedes 2.29 · 45 matches

Arad W away — creates 2.19, concedes 2.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banat Girls W attack 2.24 + Arad W defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.15

Arad W attack 2.19 + Banat Girls W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Banat Girls W scores more
38%
level
20%
Arad W scores more
42%

Arad W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Banat Girls W vs Arad W

Arad W beat Banat Girls W 3-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Comunal Comloșu Mare in Comloșu Mare.