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Banants II vs Lokomotiv — First League 2019

Banants II
Banants II
FT
1 – 2
Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
6/16/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 26Banants-3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Banants II26%
×Draw20%
Lokomotiv54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banants II
1.51
Lokomotiv
2.23

Lokomotiv creates 48% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 13 away

creates per match

Banants II
1.88
Lokomotiv
3.00

allows per match

Banants II
1.47
Lokomotiv
1.15

finishing

Banants II+0.00on par
Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banants II ↓

Lokomotiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Banants II or draw
46%
Banants II or Lokomotiv
80%
Draw or Lokomotiv
74%

Winning margin

Banants II wins by 2+
12%
Lokomotiv wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Banants II 1+ goals
78%
Banants II 2+ goals
44%
Banants II 3+ goals
19%
Lokomotiv 1+ goals
89%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
65%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Banants II (draw refunded)
33%
Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banants II at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.47 · 100 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banants II attack 1.88 + Lokomotiv defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.51

Lokomotiv attack 3.00 + Banants II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Banants II scores more
26%
level
20%
Lokomotiv scores more
54%

Lokomotiv at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Banants II 1–2 Lokomotiv

Lokomotiv beat Banants II 2-1 in First League on June 16, 2020.

The match was played at Banants-3 in Yerevan.