Banants II 1–1 BKMA II: Result & Stats

Banants II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

BKMA II

4/30/2025

First League · Round 22Banants-3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Banants II33%

×Draw23%

BKMA II44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Banants IIExpected goals in this matchBKMA II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.83

Banants II

1.56

BKMA II

1.83

BKMA II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 71 away

1.88

creates per match

2.20

1.47

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Banants II

1.88

BKMA II

2.20

allows per match

Banants II

1.47

BKMA II

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banants II+0.00on par

BKMA II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banants II ↓

BKMA II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Banants II or draw

56%

Banants II or BKMA II

77%

Draw or BKMA II

67%

Winning margin

Banants II wins by 2+

16%

BKMA II wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Banants II 1+ goals

79%

Banants II 2+ goals

46%

Banants II 3+ goals

21%

BKMA II 1+ goals

84%

BKMA II 2+ goals

54%

BKMA II 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Banants II (draw refunded)

43%

BKMA II (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banants II at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.47 · 100 matches

BKMA II away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.24 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banants II attack 1.88 + BKMA II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.56

BKMA II attack 2.20 + Banants II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Banants II scores more

33%

level

23%

BKMA II scores more

44%

BKMA II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "BKMA II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff