Banants II 7–0 Ani Yerevan: Result & Stats

Banants II

FT

7 – 0

Ani Yerevan

8/6/2019

First League · Round 1Banants-3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Banants II69%

×Draw16%

Ani Yerevan15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Banants IIExpected goals in this matchAni Yerevan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.91

1.34

Banants II

2.91

Ani Yerevan

1.34

Banants II creates 117% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 14 away

1.88

creates per match

1.21

1.47

allows per match

3.93

creates per match

Banants II

1.88

Ani Yerevan

1.21

allows per match

Banants II

1.47

Ani Yerevan

3.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Banants II+0.00on par

Ani Yerevan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banants II ↓

Ani Yerevan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Banants II or draw

85%

Banants II or Ani Yerevan

84%

Draw or Ani Yerevan

31%

Winning margin

Banants II wins by 2+

49%

Ani Yerevan wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Banants II 1+ goals

94%

Banants II 2+ goals

78%

Banants II 3+ goals

54%

Ani Yerevan 1+ goals

74%

Ani Yerevan 2+ goals

39%

Ani Yerevan 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Banants II (draw refunded)

82%

Ani Yerevan (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banants II at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.47 · 100 matches

Ani Yerevan away — creates 1.21, concedes 3.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banants II attack 1.88 + Ani Yerevan defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 2.91

Ani Yerevan attack 1.21 + Banants II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Banants II scores more

69%

level

16%

Ani Yerevan scores more

15%

Banants II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Banants II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff