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Baník Ostrava W vs FC Praha W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Baník Ostrava W
Baník Ostrava W
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FC Praha W
FC Praha W
5/16/20261. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Baník Ostrava W53%
×Draw19%
FC Praha W28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baník Ostrava W
2.63
FC Praha W
1.89

Baník Ostrava W creates 39% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 20 away

creates per match

Baník Ostrava W
1.00
FC Praha W
1.10

allows per match

Baník Ostrava W
2.67
FC Praha W
4.25

finishing

Baník Ostrava W+0.00on par
FC Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Ostrava W ↓

FC Praha W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Baník Ostrava W or draw
72%
Baník Ostrava W or FC Praha W
81%
Draw or FC Praha W
47%

Winning margin

Baník Ostrava W wins by 2+
34%
FC Praha W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Baník Ostrava W 1+ goals
93%
Baník Ostrava W 2+ goals
73%
Baník Ostrava W 3+ goals
48%
FC Praha W 1+ goals
85%
FC Praha W 2+ goals
56%
FC Praha W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Baník Ostrava W (draw refunded)
66%
FC Praha W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Ostrava W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 30 matches

FC Praha W away — creates 1.10, concedes 4.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Ostrava W attack 1.00 + FC Praha W defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 2.63

FC Praha W attack 1.10 + Baník Ostrava W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Baník Ostrava W scores more
53%
level
19%
FC Praha W scores more
28%

Baník Ostrava W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Baník Ostrava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baník Ostrava W vs FC Praha W

Baník Ostrava W beat FC Praha W 3-2 in 1. Liga Women on May 16, 2026.