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Bamboutos vs Yafoot — Elite Two 2020

Bamboutos
Bamboutos
FT
1 – 0
Yafoot
Yafoot
4/30/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bamboutos56%
×Draw24%
Yafoot19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bamboutos
1.66
Yafoot
0.85

Bamboutos creates 95% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 33 away

creates per match

Bamboutos
1.90
Yafoot
0.91

allows per match

Bamboutos
0.80
Yafoot
1.42

finishing

Bamboutos+0.00on par
Yafoot+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bamboutos ↓

Yafoot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bamboutos or draw
81%
Bamboutos or Yafoot
76%
Draw or Yafoot
44%

Winning margin

Bamboutos wins by 2+
31%
Yafoot wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bamboutos 1+ goals
81%
Bamboutos 2+ goals
49%
Bamboutos 3+ goals
23%
Yafoot 1+ goals
57%
Yafoot 2+ goals
21%
Yafoot 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bamboutos (draw refunded)
75%
Yafoot (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bamboutos at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Yafoot away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bamboutos attack 1.90 + Yafoot defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.66

Yafoot attack 0.91 + Bamboutos defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bamboutos scores more
56%
level
24%
Yafoot scores more
19%

Bamboutos at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Bamboutos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bamboutos vs Yafoot

Bamboutos beat Yafoot 1-0 in Elite Two on April 30, 2026.