Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bamboutos vs UMS de Loum — Elite One 2019

Bamboutos
Bamboutos
FT
0 – 1
UMS de Loum
UMS de Loum
6/2/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 23Stade Municipal Fotso Victor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bamboutos40%
×Draw32%
UMS de Loum29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bamboutos
1.05
UMS de Loum
0.85

Bamboutos creates 24% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 66 away

creates per match

Bamboutos
1.22
UMS de Loum
0.92

allows per match

Bamboutos
0.78
UMS de Loum
0.89

finishing

Bamboutos+0.00on par
UMS de Loum+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bamboutos ↓

UMS de Loum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bamboutos or draw
71%
Bamboutos or UMS de Loum
68%
Draw or UMS de Loum
60%

Winning margin

Bamboutos wins by 2+
16%
UMS de Loum wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bamboutos 1+ goals
65%
Bamboutos 2+ goals
28%
Bamboutos 3+ goals
9%
UMS de Loum 1+ goals
57%
UMS de Loum 2+ goals
21%
UMS de Loum 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bamboutos (draw refunded)
58%
UMS de Loum (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bamboutos at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.78 · 78 matches

UMS de Loum away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.89 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bamboutos attack 1.22 + UMS de Loum defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.05

UMS de Loum attack 0.92 + Bamboutos defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bamboutos scores more
40%
level
32%
UMS de Loum scores more
29%

Bamboutos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bamboutos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bamboutos vs UMS de Loum

UMS de Loum beat Bamboutos 1-0 in Elite One on June 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Fotso Victor in Bandjoun.