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Bamboutos vs Tonnerre — Elite One 2019

Bamboutos
Bamboutos
FT
1 – 2
Tonnerre
Tonnerre
11/20/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 8Middle Farm Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Bamboutos48%
×Draw30%
Tonnerre22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bamboutos
1.21
Tonnerre
0.71

Bamboutos creates 70% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 36 away

creates per match

Bamboutos
1.22
Tonnerre
0.64

allows per match

Bamboutos
0.78
Tonnerre
1.19

finishing

Bamboutos+0.00on par
Tonnerre+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bamboutos ↓

Tonnerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bamboutos or draw
78%
Bamboutos or Tonnerre
70%
Draw or Tonnerre
52%

Winning margin

Bamboutos wins by 2+
21%
Tonnerre wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bamboutos 1+ goals
70%
Bamboutos 2+ goals
34%
Bamboutos 3+ goals
12%
Tonnerre 1+ goals
51%
Tonnerre 2+ goals
16%
Tonnerre 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bamboutos (draw refunded)
69%
Tonnerre (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bamboutos at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.78 · 78 matches

Tonnerre away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.19 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bamboutos attack 1.22 + Tonnerre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tonnerre attack 0.64 + Bamboutos defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bamboutos scores more
48%
level
30%
Tonnerre scores more
22%

Bamboutos at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bamboutos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Bamboutos 1–2 Tonnerre

Tonnerre beat Bamboutos 2-1 in Elite One on November 20, 2019.

The match was played at Middle Farm Stadium in Limbé.