Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bamboutos vs Stade Renard — Elite One 2019

Bamboutos
Bamboutos
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Stade Renard
Stade Renard
2/23/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 13Stade Municipal de Mbouda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Bamboutos43%
×Draw30%
Stade Renard26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bamboutos
1.15
Stade Renard
0.83

Bamboutos creates 39% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 96 away

creates per match

Bamboutos
1.22
Stade Renard
0.88

allows per match

Bamboutos
0.78
Stade Renard
1.07

finishing

Bamboutos+0.00on par
Stade Renard+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bamboutos ↓

Stade Renard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bamboutos or draw
74%
Bamboutos or Stade Renard
70%
Draw or Stade Renard
57%

Winning margin

Bamboutos wins by 2+
18%
Stade Renard wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bamboutos 1+ goals
68%
Bamboutos 2+ goals
32%
Bamboutos 3+ goals
11%
Stade Renard 1+ goals
56%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
20%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bamboutos (draw refunded)
62%
Stade Renard (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bamboutos at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.78 · 78 matches

Stade Renard away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.07 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bamboutos attack 1.22 + Stade Renard defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Stade Renard attack 0.88 + Bamboutos defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bamboutos scores more
43%
level
30%
Stade Renard scores more
26%

Bamboutos at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bamboutos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Bamboutos 0–2 Stade Renard

Stade Renard beat Bamboutos 2-0 in Elite One on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Mbouda in Mbouda.