Bamboutos 1–1 Panthère: Result & Stats | Elite One

Bamboutos

FT

1 – 1

Panthère

2/16/2020

Elite One · Round 22Limbe Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Bamboutos43%

×Draw31%

Panthère26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BamboutosExpected goals in this matchPanthère

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.81

Bamboutos

1.14

Panthère

0.81

Bamboutos creates 41% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 64 away

1.22

creates per match

0.84

0.78

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Bamboutos

1.22

Panthère

0.84

allows per match

Bamboutos

0.78

Panthère

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bamboutos+0.00on par

Panthère+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bamboutos ↓

Panthère →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Bamboutos or draw

74%

Bamboutos or Panthère

69%

Draw or Panthère

57%

Winning margin

Bamboutos wins by 2+

18%

Panthère wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bamboutos 1+ goals

68%

Bamboutos 2+ goals

32%

Bamboutos 3+ goals

11%

Panthère 1+ goals

56%

Panthère 2+ goals

19%

Panthère 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bamboutos (draw refunded)

63%

Panthère (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bamboutos at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.78 · 78 matches

Panthère away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.05 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bamboutos attack 1.22 + Panthère defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.14

Panthère attack 0.84 + Bamboutos defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bamboutos scores more

43%

level

31%

Panthère scores more

26%

Bamboutos at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bamboutos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff