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Bamboutos vs New Star — Elite One 2019

Bamboutos
Bamboutos
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
New Star
New Star
5/18/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 17Stade Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Bamboutos53%
×Draw28%
New Star19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bamboutos
1.38
New Star
0.70

Bamboutos creates 97% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 37 away

creates per match

Bamboutos
1.22
New Star
0.62

allows per match

Bamboutos
0.78
New Star
1.54

finishing

Bamboutos+0.00on par
New Star+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bamboutos ↓

New Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bamboutos or draw
81%
Bamboutos or New Star
72%
Draw or New Star
47%

Winning margin

Bamboutos wins by 2+
26%
New Star wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bamboutos 1+ goals
75%
Bamboutos 2+ goals
40%
Bamboutos 3+ goals
16%
New Star 1+ goals
50%
New Star 2+ goals
16%
New Star 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bamboutos (draw refunded)
74%
New Star (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bamboutos at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.78 · 78 matches

New Star away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.54 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bamboutos attack 1.22 + New Star defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

New Star attack 0.62 + Bamboutos defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bamboutos scores more
53%
level
28%
New Star scores more
19%

Bamboutos at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bamboutos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bamboutos vs New Star

Bamboutos and New Star drew 0-0 in Elite One on May 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Omnisport in Buéa.