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Bamboutos vs Kumba — Elite Two 2020

Bamboutos
Bamboutos
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Kumba
Kumba
3/16/2026Elite TwoElite Two · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bamboutos60%
×Draw23%
Kumba16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bamboutos
1.73
Kumba
0.77

Bamboutos creates 125% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Bamboutos
1.90
Kumba
0.73

allows per match

Bamboutos
0.80
Kumba
1.55

finishing

Bamboutos+0.00on par
Kumba+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bamboutos ↓

Kumba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bamboutos or draw
84%
Bamboutos or Kumba
77%
Draw or Kumba
40%

Winning margin

Bamboutos wins by 2+
34%
Kumba wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bamboutos 1+ goals
82%
Bamboutos 2+ goals
52%
Bamboutos 3+ goals
25%
Kumba 1+ goals
54%
Kumba 2+ goals
18%
Kumba 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bamboutos (draw refunded)
79%
Kumba (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bamboutos at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Kumba away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bamboutos attack 1.90 + Kumba defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.73

Kumba attack 0.73 + Bamboutos defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bamboutos scores more
60%
level
23%
Kumba scores more
16%

Bamboutos at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bamboutos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Bamboutos 4–1 Kumba

Bamboutos beat Kumba 4-1 in Elite Two on March 16, 2026.