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Bamboutos vs Fortuna Mfou — Elite One 2019

Bamboutos
Bamboutos
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
2/16/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 12Stade Municipal de Mbouda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Bamboutos45%
×Draw28%
Fortuna Mfou27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bamboutos
1.30
Fortuna Mfou
0.94

Bamboutos creates 38% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 96 away

creates per match

Bamboutos
1.22
Fortuna Mfou
1.09

allows per match

Bamboutos
0.78
Fortuna Mfou
1.39

finishing

Bamboutos+0.00on par
Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bamboutos ↓

Fortuna Mfou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bamboutos or draw
73%
Bamboutos or Fortuna Mfou
72%
Draw or Fortuna Mfou
55%

Winning margin

Bamboutos wins by 2+
21%
Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bamboutos 1+ goals
73%
Bamboutos 2+ goals
37%
Bamboutos 3+ goals
14%
Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
61%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
24%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bamboutos (draw refunded)
62%
Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bamboutos at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.78 · 78 matches

Fortuna Mfou away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bamboutos attack 1.22 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.30

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.09 + Bamboutos defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bamboutos scores more
45%
level
28%
Fortuna Mfou scores more
27%

Bamboutos at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bamboutos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Bamboutos 1–0 Fortuna Mfou

Bamboutos beat Fortuna Mfou 1-0 in Elite One on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Mbouda in Mbouda.