Bamboutos 3–1 Aigle Royal: Result & Stats

Bamboutos

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Aigle Royal

11/5/2023

Elite One · Round 6Stade Municipal de Mbouda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bamboutos48%

×Draw28%

Aigle Royal23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BamboutosExpected goals in this matchAigle Royal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.82

Bamboutos

1.32

Aigle Royal

0.82

Bamboutos creates 61% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 38 away

1.22

creates per match

0.87

0.78

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Bamboutos

1.22

Aigle Royal

0.87

allows per match

Bamboutos

0.78

Aigle Royal

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bamboutos+0.00on par

Aigle Royal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bamboutos ↓

Aigle Royal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bamboutos or draw

77%

Bamboutos or Aigle Royal

72%

Draw or Aigle Royal

52%

Winning margin

Bamboutos wins by 2+

23%

Aigle Royal wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bamboutos 1+ goals

73%

Bamboutos 2+ goals

38%

Bamboutos 3+ goals

15%

Aigle Royal 1+ goals

56%

Aigle Royal 2+ goals

20%

Aigle Royal 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bamboutos (draw refunded)

68%

Aigle Royal (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bamboutos at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.78 · 78 matches

Aigle Royal away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bamboutos attack 1.22 + Aigle Royal defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Aigle Royal attack 0.87 + Bamboutos defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bamboutos scores more

48%

level

28%

Aigle Royal scores more

23%

Bamboutos at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bamboutos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff