Bamber Bridge 1–3 Hednesford Town: Result & Stats

Bamber Bridge

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Hednesford Town

3/7/2026

League #59

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bamber Bridge42%

×Draw25%

Hednesford Town33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bamber BridgeExpected goals in this matchHednesford Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.33

Bamber Bridge

1.54

Hednesford Town

1.33

Bamber Bridge creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

1.86

creates per match

1.38

1.29

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Bamber Bridge

1.86

Hednesford Town

1.38

allows per match

Bamber Bridge

1.29

Hednesford Town

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bamber Bridge+0.00on par

Hednesford Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bamber Bridge ↓

Hednesford Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bamber Bridge or draw

67%

Bamber Bridge or Hednesford Town

75%

Draw or Hednesford Town

58%

Winning margin

Bamber Bridge wins by 2+

21%

Hednesford Town wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bamber Bridge 1+ goals

79%

Bamber Bridge 2+ goals

45%

Bamber Bridge 3+ goals

20%

Hednesford Town 1+ goals

74%

Hednesford Town 2+ goals

38%

Hednesford Town 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bamber Bridge (draw refunded)

56%

Hednesford Town (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bamber Bridge at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Hednesford Town away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bamber Bridge attack 1.86 + Hednesford Town defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.54

Hednesford Town attack 1.38 + Bamber Bridge defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bamber Bridge scores more

42%

level

25%

Hednesford Town scores more

33%

Bamber Bridge at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bamber Bridge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff