Bamber Bridge 0–2 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Bamber Bridge

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Fleetwood Town

C. Dolan 90'

H. Kayden 47'

7/6/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sir Tom Finney Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bamber Bridge10%

×Draw17%

Fleetwood Town73%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bamber BridgeExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

2.25

Bamber Bridge

0.67

Fleetwood Town

2.25

Fleetwood Town creates 236% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

0.50

creates per match

1.67

2.83

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Bamber Bridge

0.50

Fleetwood Town

1.67

allows per match

Bamber Bridge

2.83

Fleetwood Town

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bamber Bridge+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bamber Bridge ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–112%

0–214%

0–310%

0–46%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bamber Bridge or draw

27%

Bamber Bridge or Fleetwood Town

83%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

90%

Winning margin

Bamber Bridge wins by 2+

2%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

Bamber Bridge 1+ goals

49%

Bamber Bridge 2+ goals

15%

Bamber Bridge 3+ goals

3%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

89%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

65%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Bamber Bridge (draw refunded)

12%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bamber Bridge at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bamber Bridge attack 0.50 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.67

Fleetwood Town attack 1.67 + Bamber Bridge defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Bamber Bridge scores more

10%

level

17%

Fleetwood Town scores more

73%

Fleetwood Town at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'

H. Kayden

90'

C. Dolan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff