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Bamber Bridge vs Chorley — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bamber Bridge
Bamber Bridge
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chorley
Chorley
7/4/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bamber Bridge9%
×Draw15%
Chorley76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bamber Bridge
0.75
Chorley
2.58

Chorley creates 244% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bamber Bridge
0.50
Chorley
2.33

allows per match

Bamber Bridge
2.83
Chorley
1.00

finishing

Bamber Bridge+0.00on par
Chorley+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bamber Bridge ↓

Chorley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–212%
0–310%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Bamber Bridge or draw
24%
Bamber Bridge or Chorley
85%
Draw or Chorley
91%

Winning margin

Bamber Bridge wins by 2+
2%
Chorley wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Bamber Bridge 1+ goals
53%
Bamber Bridge 2+ goals
17%
Bamber Bridge 3+ goals
4%
Chorley 1+ goals
92%
Chorley 2+ goals
72%
Chorley 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Bamber Bridge (draw refunded)
10%
Chorley (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bamber Bridge at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Chorley away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bamber Bridge attack 0.50 + Chorley defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Chorley attack 2.33 + Bamber Bridge defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Bamber Bridge scores more
9%
level
15%
Chorley scores more
76%

Chorley at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Chorley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Bamber
Chorley
J. Milligan
Manager: J. Milligan
A. Preece
Manager: A. Preece

Friendlies Clubs: Bamber Bridge 1–0 Chorley

Bamber Bridge beat Chorley 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 4, 2026.