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Balzers vs Linth — 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 2019

Balzers
Balzers
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Linth
Linth
11/27/20211. Liga Classic - Group 31. Liga Classic - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Sportplatz Rheinau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Balzers41%
×Draw22%
Linth37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balzers
1.81
Linth
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 74 away

creates per match

Balzers
1.62
Linth
1.47

allows per match

Balzers
1.93
Linth
2.00

finishing

Balzers+0.00on par
Linth+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balzers ↓

Linth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Balzers or draw
63%
Balzers or Linth
78%
Draw or Linth
59%

Winning margin

Balzers wins by 2+
22%
Linth wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Balzers 1+ goals
84%
Balzers 2+ goals
54%
Balzers 3+ goals
27%
Linth 1+ goals
82%
Linth 2+ goals
51%
Linth 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Balzers (draw refunded)
53%
Linth (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balzers at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.93 · 42 matches

Linth away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.00 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balzers attack 1.62 + Linth defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Linth attack 1.47 + Balzers defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Balzers scores more
41%
level
22%
Linth scores more
37%

Balzers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Balzers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 3: Balzers 4–3 Linth

Balzers beat Linth 4-3 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Rheinau in Balzers.