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Kariana Erden vs Tsarsko Selo — Second League 2018

Kariana Erden
Kariana Erden
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Tsarsko Selo
Tsarsko Selo
11/10/2018Second LeagueSecond League · Round 14Stadion Kariana (Erden)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kariana Erden34%
×Draw25%
Tsarsko Selo41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariana Erden
1.31
Tsarsko Selo
1.47

Tsarsko Selo creates 12% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 15 away

creates per match

Kariana Erden
1.61
Tsarsko Selo
2.00

allows per match

Kariana Erden
0.94
Tsarsko Selo
1.00

finishing

Kariana Erden+0.00on par
Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariana Erden ↓

Tsarsko Selo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kariana Erden or draw
59%
Kariana Erden or Tsarsko Selo
75%
Draw or Tsarsko Selo
66%

Winning margin

Kariana Erden wins by 2+
15%
Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kariana Erden 1+ goals
73%
Kariana Erden 2+ goals
38%
Kariana Erden 3+ goals
14%
Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals
77%
Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals
43%
Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)
45%
Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariana Erden at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariana Erden attack 1.61 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Tsarsko Selo attack 2.00 + Kariana Erden defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kariana Erden scores more
34%
level
25%
Tsarsko Selo scores more
41%

Tsarsko Selo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tsarsko Selo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kariana Erden vs Tsarsko Selo

Tsarsko Selo beat Kariana Erden 2-1 in Second League on November 10, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Kariana (Erden).