Quindio 1–0 America de Cali: Result & Stats

Quindio

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

America de Cali

D. Ceter 88' (pen)

10/26/2016

Primera B · Promotion Round - 1Estadio Centenario (Armenia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Quindio36%

×Draw29%

America de Cali34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QuindioExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.07

Quindio

1.11

America de Cali

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 142 home / 9 away

1.45

creates per match

1.33

0.82

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Quindio

1.45

America de Cali

1.33

allows per match

Quindio

0.82

America de Cali

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quindio+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quindio ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Quindio or draw

66%

Quindio or America de Cali

71%

Draw or America de Cali

64%

Winning margin

Quindio wins by 2+

15%

America de Cali wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Quindio 1+ goals

67%

Quindio 2+ goals

30%

Quindio 3+ goals

10%

America de Cali 1+ goals

66%

America de Cali 2+ goals

29%

America de Cali 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Quindio (draw refunded)

51%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quindio at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.82 · 142 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quindio attack 1.45 + America de Cali defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.11

America de Cali attack 1.33 + Quindio defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Quindio scores more

36%

level

29%

America de Cali scores more

34%

Quindio at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Quindio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

J. Deusa← J. Mendoza

56'

Brayan Angulo Mosquera← J. Álvarez

71'

C. Mina← J. Gómez

84'

Y. Filigrana← G. Torres

88'

D. CeterPenalty

89'

D. Ferreira← Jhonny Vásquez

Quindio

America

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: J. Hernández

46'▲J. Deusa←▼J. Mendoza

71'▲C. Mina←▼J. Gómez

84'▲Y. Filigrana←▼G. Torres

Quindio substitutes

DeusaMinaFiligrana

Manager: H. Torres

56'▲Brayan Angulo Mosquera←▼J. Álvarez

89'▲D. Ferreira←▼Jhonny Vásquez

America de Cali substitutes

MosqueraFerreira