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Baltika vs Surkhon — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Baltika
Baltika
AET
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Surkhon
Surkhon
1/25/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Baltika46%
×Draw26%
Surkhon28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.50
Surkhon
1.10

Baltika creates 36% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 5 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.80
Surkhon
1.20

allows per match

Baltika
1.00
Surkhon
1.20

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
Surkhon+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Surkhon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
72%
Baltika or Surkhon
74%
Draw or Surkhon
54%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
23%
Surkhon wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
78%
Baltika 2+ goals
44%
Baltika 3+ goals
19%
Surkhon 1+ goals
67%
Surkhon 2+ goals
30%
Surkhon 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
63%
Surkhon (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

Surkhon away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.80 + Surkhon defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.50

Surkhon attack 1.20 + Baltika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Baltika scores more
46%
level
26%
Surkhon scores more
28%

Baltika at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Baltika
Surkhon
Andrey Talalaev
Manager: Andrey Talalaev
Fevzi Davletov
Manager: Fevzi Davletov

Friendlies Clubs: Baltika 2–2 Surkhon

Baltika and Surkhon drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 25, 2026.