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Baltika vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — First League 2026

Baltika
Baltika
CANC
22:00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Shinnik Yaroslavl
5/9/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 37

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Baltika49%
×Draw28%
Shinnik Yaroslavl23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.38
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.86

Baltika creates 60% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 123 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.25
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.99

allows per match

Baltika
0.74
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.50

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
77%
Baltika or Shinnik Yaroslavl
72%
Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl
51%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
24%
Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
75%
Baltika 2+ goals
40%
Baltika 3+ goals
16%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals
58%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals
21%
Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
68%
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.74 · 109 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.50 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.25 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Baltika defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Baltika scores more
49%
level
28%
Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more
23%

Baltika at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baltika vs Shinnik Yaroslavl — Match Preview

Baltika face Shinnik Yaroslavl on May 9, 2020 in this First League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.