Baltika 1–1 FK Sokol Saratov: Result & Stats

Baltika

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FK Sokol Saratov

N. Gassama 10'

A. Molodtsov 49'

4/20/2025

First League · Round 29Rostec Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Baltika52%

×Draw27%

FK Sokol Saratov20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaltikaExpected goals in this matchFK Sokol Saratov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.76

Baltika

1.41

FK Sokol Saratov

0.76

Baltika creates 86% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 51 away

1.27

creates per match

0.76

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Baltika

1.27

FK Sokol Saratov

0.76

allows per match

Baltika

0.76

FK Sokol Saratov

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Baltika or draw

80%

Baltika or FK Sokol Saratov

73%

Draw or FK Sokol Saratov

48%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+

26%

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals

76%

Baltika 2+ goals

41%

Baltika 3+ goals

17%

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals

53%

FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals

18%

FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)

72%

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.76 · 107 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.76 + Baltika defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Baltika scores more

52%

level

27%

FK Sokol Saratov scores more

20%

Baltika at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

19'

20'

22'

31'

D. Poluboyarinov← D. Nduka

36'

Sergey Pryakhin

39'

Sergey Varatynov

45+2'

Vladimir Kovačević

46'

R. Yuzepchuk← A. Sinyak

49'

A. Molodtsov

51'

Andrey Mendel

62'

I. Porokhov← V. Shpitalny

62'

I. Churikov← D. Begun

67'

O. Isaenko← I. Petrov

67'

Y. Kovalev← A. Mokhammad

67'

V. Lisakovich← N. Titkov

68'

Stefan Vukić

77'

A. Eldarushev← B. Gil

77'

V. Babaev← G. Kantaria

89'

M. Petrov← Y. Kovalev

Statistics

BaltikaFK

Discipline

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0