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Baltika vs FC Armavir — First League 2018

Baltika
Baltika
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
FC Armavir
FC Armavir
3/15/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 27Stadion Kaliningrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Baltika49%
×Draw30%
FC Armavir21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.25
FC Armavir
0.72

Baltika creates 74% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 32 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.25
FC Armavir
0.69

allows per match

Baltika
0.75
FC Armavir
1.25

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
FC Armavir+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

FC Armavir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
79%
Baltika or FC Armavir
70%
Draw or FC Armavir
51%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
22%
FC Armavir wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
71%
Baltika 2+ goals
36%
Baltika 3+ goals
13%
FC Armavir 1+ goals
51%
FC Armavir 2+ goals
16%
FC Armavir 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
70%
FC Armavir (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 106 matches

FC Armavir away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.25 + FC Armavir defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

FC Armavir attack 0.69 + Baltika defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Baltika scores more
49%
level
30%
FC Armavir scores more
21%

Baltika at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Baltika 2–0 FC Armavir

Baltika beat FC Armavir 2-0 in First League on March 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Kaliningrad in Kaliningrad.