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Baltika vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Cup 2019

Baltika
Baltika
Preview
15:00
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
8/18/2026CupCup · Group Stage - 2Rostec Arena
39%
Baltika
model favours
39%27%34%

Baltika have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Baltika39%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Makhachkala34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.32
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.31
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.33

allows per match

Baltika
1.08
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.33

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
66%
Baltika or Dinamo Makhachkala
73%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
61%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
18%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
73%
Baltika 2+ goals
38%
Baltika 3+ goals
15%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
70%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
34%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
54%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.31 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.33 + Baltika defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Baltika scores more
39%
level
27%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
34%

Baltika at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Dinamo Makhachkala score first in only 24% of matches
  • Baltika score first in only 27% of matches
  • Baltika have scored in 8 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Baltika
WWWWL
Makhachkala
WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baltika face Dinamo Makhachkala (Cup)

Cup returns with Baltika hosting Dinamo Makhachkala. Match starts August 18, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Baltika host Dinamo Makhachkala at Rostec Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.