Baltika 1–0 Akhmat Grozny: Result & Stats

Baltika

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Akhmat Grozny

9/23/2023

Premier League · Round 9Rostec Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Baltika46%

×Draw27%

Akhmat Grozny27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaltikaExpected goals in this matchAkhmat Grozny

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.99

Baltika

1.37

Akhmat Grozny

0.99

Baltika creates 38% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 121 away

1.27

creates per match

1.01

0.97

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Baltika

1.27

Akhmat Grozny

1.01

allows per match

Baltika

0.97

Akhmat Grozny

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Akhmat Grozny →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Baltika or draw

73%

Baltika or Akhmat Grozny

73%

Draw or Akhmat Grozny

54%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+

22%

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals

75%

Baltika 2+ goals

40%

Baltika 3+ goals

16%

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals

63%

Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals

26%

Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)

63%

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Akhmat Grozny away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.47 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.01 + Baltika defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Baltika scores more

46%

level

27%

Akhmat Grozny scores more

27%

Baltika at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Baltika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff