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Akhmat Grozny vs Baltika — Premier League 2018

Akhmat Grozny
Akhmat Grozny
FT
1 – 7
HT: 0 – 5
Baltika
Baltika
4/13/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Akhmat Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Akhmat Grozny37%
×Draw28%
Baltika35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhmat Grozny
1.20
Baltika
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 121 home / 30 away

creates per match

Akhmat Grozny
1.27
Baltika
1.10

allows per match

Akhmat Grozny
1.21
Baltika
1.13

finishing

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par
Baltika+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhmat Grozny ↓

Baltika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Akhmat Grozny or draw
65%
Akhmat Grozny or Baltika
72%
Draw or Baltika
63%

Winning margin

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+
16%
Baltika wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals
70%
Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals
34%
Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals
12%
Baltika 1+ goals
69%
Baltika 2+ goals
32%
Baltika 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)
51%
Baltika (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhmat Grozny at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 121 matches

Baltika away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.27 + Baltika defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.20

Baltika attack 1.10 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Akhmat Grozny scores more
37%
level
28%
Baltika scores more
35%

Akhmat Grozny at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Akhmat Grozny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Akhmat Grozny 1–7 Baltika

Baltika beat Akhmat Grozny 7-1 in Premier League on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Akhmat Arena in Groznyi.