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Baltika U19 vs UOR №5 U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Baltika U19
Baltika U19
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
UOR №5 U20
UOR №5 U20
7/26/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 16Stadion Baltika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Baltika U1949%
×Draw21%
UOR №5 U2030%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika U19
2.12
UOR №5 U20
1.61

Baltika U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 65 away

creates per match

Baltika U19
1.61
UOR №5 U20
1.40

allows per match

Baltika U19
1.82
UOR №5 U20
2.63

finishing

Baltika U19+0.00on par
UOR №5 U20+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika U19 ↓

UOR №5 U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Baltika U19 or draw
70%
Baltika U19 or UOR №5 U20
79%
Draw or UOR №5 U20
51%

Winning margin

Baltika U19 wins by 2+
29%
UOR №5 U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Baltika U19 1+ goals
88%
Baltika U19 2+ goals
62%
Baltika U19 3+ goals
35%
UOR №5 U20 1+ goals
80%
UOR №5 U20 2+ goals
48%
UOR №5 U20 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Baltika U19 (draw refunded)
63%
UOR №5 U20 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika U19 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

UOR №5 U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.63 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika U19 attack 1.61 + UOR №5 U20 defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.12

UOR №5 U20 attack 1.40 + Baltika U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Baltika U19 scores more
49%
level
21%
UOR №5 U20 scores more
30%

Baltika U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Baltika U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Baltika U19 4–2 UOR №5 U20

Baltika U19 beat UOR №5 U20 4-2 in Youth Championship on July 26, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Baltika in Kaliningrad.