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Baltika U19 vs Strogino U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Baltika U19
Baltika U19
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Strogino U20
Strogino U20
7/5/2024Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 13Stadion Baltika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Baltika U1941%
×Draw23%
Strogino U2036%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika U19
1.76
Strogino U20
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 56 away

creates per match

Baltika U19
1.61
Strogino U20
1.45

allows per match

Baltika U19
1.82
Strogino U20
1.91

finishing

Baltika U19+0.00on par
Strogino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika U19 ↓

Strogino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Baltika U19 or draw
64%
Baltika U19 or Strogino U20
77%
Draw or Strogino U20
59%

Winning margin

Baltika U19 wins by 2+
21%
Strogino U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Baltika U19 1+ goals
83%
Baltika U19 2+ goals
52%
Baltika U19 3+ goals
26%
Strogino U20 1+ goals
81%
Strogino U20 2+ goals
49%
Strogino U20 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Baltika U19 (draw refunded)
53%
Strogino U20 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika U19 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

Strogino U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika U19 attack 1.61 + Strogino U20 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.76

Strogino U20 attack 1.45 + Baltika U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Baltika U19 scores more
41%
level
23%
Strogino U20 scores more
36%

Baltika U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Baltika U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Baltika U19 3–2 Strogino U20

Baltika U19 beat Strogino U20 3-2 in Youth Championship on July 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Baltika in Kaliningrad.