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Baltika U19 vs Lokomotiv Moskva U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Baltika U19
Baltika U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
6/27/2025Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 12Stadion Baltika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Baltika U1927%
×Draw23%
Lokomotiv Moskva U1950%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika U19
1.31
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
1.87

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 79 away

creates per match

Baltika U19
1.61
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
1.92

allows per match

Baltika U19
1.82
Lokomotiv Moskva U19
1.00

finishing

Baltika U19+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Moskva U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika U19 ↓

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Baltika U19 or draw
50%
Baltika U19 or Lokomotiv Moskva U19
77%
Draw or Lokomotiv Moskva U19
73%

Winning margin

Baltika U19 wins by 2+
11%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Baltika U19 1+ goals
73%
Baltika U19 2+ goals
38%
Baltika U19 3+ goals
14%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 1+ goals
85%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 2+ goals
56%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Baltika U19 (draw refunded)
35%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika U19 at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.00 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika U19 attack 1.61 + Lokomotiv Moskva U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 attack 1.92 + Baltika U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Baltika U19 scores more
27%
level
23%
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 scores more
50%

Lokomotiv Moskva U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Baltika U19 1–0 Lokomotiv Moskva U19

Baltika U19 beat Lokomotiv Moskva U19 1-0 in Youth Championship on June 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Baltika in Kaliningrad.