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Baltika BFU vs Yadro St. Petersburg — Second League - Group 2 2020

Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yadro St. Petersburg
Yadro St. Petersburg
9/22/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Stadion Baltika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baltika BFU45%
×Draw26%
Yadro St. Petersburg29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika BFU
1.48
Yadro St. Petersburg
1.12

Baltika BFU creates 32% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 15 away

creates per match

Baltika BFU
1.22
Yadro St. Petersburg
1.13

allows per match

Baltika BFU
1.11
Yadro St. Petersburg
1.73

finishing

Baltika BFU+0.00on par
Yadro St. Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika BFU ↓

Yadro St. Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Baltika BFU or draw
71%
Baltika BFU or Yadro St. Petersburg
74%
Draw or Yadro St. Petersburg
55%

Winning margin

Baltika BFU wins by 2+
22%
Yadro St. Petersburg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Baltika BFU 1+ goals
77%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
43%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
19%
Yadro St. Petersburg 1+ goals
67%
Yadro St. Petersburg 2+ goals
31%
Yadro St. Petersburg 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
61%
Yadro St. Petersburg (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika BFU at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

Yadro St. Petersburg away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika BFU attack 1.22 + Yadro St. Petersburg defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Yadro St. Petersburg attack 1.13 + Baltika BFU defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Baltika BFU scores more
45%
level
26%
Yadro St. Petersburg scores more
29%

Baltika BFU at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Baltika BFU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baltika BFU vs Yadro St. Petersburg

Baltika BFU and Yadro St. Petersburg drew 0-0 in Second League - Group 2 on September 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Baltika in Kaliningrad.