Baltika BFU 2–1 Torpedo Vladimir: Result & Stats

Baltika BFU

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Torpedo Vladimir

4/24/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 4Stadion Baltika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Baltika BFU42%

×Draw27%

Torpedo Vladimir31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baltika BFUExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Vladimir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.10

Baltika BFU

1.33

Torpedo Vladimir

1.10

Baltika BFU creates 21% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 87 away

1.22

creates per match

1.08

1.11

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Baltika BFU

1.22

Torpedo Vladimir

1.08

allows per match

Baltika BFU

1.11

Torpedo Vladimir

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika BFU+0.00on par

Torpedo Vladimir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika BFU ↓

Torpedo Vladimir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Baltika BFU or draw

69%

Baltika BFU or Torpedo Vladimir

73%

Draw or Torpedo Vladimir

58%

Winning margin

Baltika BFU wins by 2+

19%

Torpedo Vladimir wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Baltika BFU 1+ goals

74%

Baltika BFU 2+ goals

38%

Baltika BFU 3+ goals

15%

Torpedo Vladimir 1+ goals

67%

Torpedo Vladimir 2+ goals

30%

Torpedo Vladimir 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Baltika BFU (draw refunded)

58%

Torpedo Vladimir (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika BFU at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

Torpedo Vladimir away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika BFU attack 1.22 + Torpedo Vladimir defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Torpedo Vladimir attack 1.08 + Baltika BFU defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Baltika BFU scores more

42%

level

27%

Torpedo Vladimir scores more

31%

Baltika BFU at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Baltika BFU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff