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Baltika BFU vs Leningradets — Second League - Group 2 2020

Baltika BFU
Baltika BFU
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Leningradets
Leningradets
10/2/2022Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Stadion Baltika

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Baltika BFU28%
×Draw28%
Leningradets44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika BFU
1.00
Leningradets
1.34

Leningradets creates 34% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 46 away

creates per match

Baltika BFU
1.22
Leningradets
1.57

allows per match

Baltika BFU
1.11
Leningradets
0.78

finishing

Baltika BFU+0.00on par
Leningradets+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika BFU ↓

Leningradets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Baltika BFU or draw
56%
Baltika BFU or Leningradets
72%
Draw or Leningradets
72%

Winning margin

Baltika BFU wins by 2+
10%
Leningradets wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Baltika BFU 1+ goals
63%
Baltika BFU 2+ goals
26%
Baltika BFU 3+ goals
8%
Leningradets 1+ goals
74%
Leningradets 2+ goals
39%
Leningradets 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Baltika BFU (draw refunded)
39%
Leningradets (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika BFU at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

Leningradets away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.78 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika BFU attack 1.22 + Leningradets defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.00

Leningradets attack 1.57 + Baltika BFU defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Baltika BFU scores more
28%
level
28%
Leningradets scores more
44%

Leningradets at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Leningradets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baltika BFU vs Leningradets

Leningradets beat Baltika BFU 1-0 in Second League - Group 2 on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Baltika in Kaliningrad.