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Balsicas Atlético vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Balsicas Atlético
Balsicas Atlético
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
11/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 9Campo de Fútbol de Balsicas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Balsicas Atlético34%
×Draw26%
UCAM Murcia II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balsicas Atlético
1.25
UCAM Murcia II
1.37

UCAM Murcia II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 110 away

creates per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.35
UCAM Murcia II
1.33

allows per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.41
UCAM Murcia II
1.14

finishing

Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par
UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balsicas Atlético ↓

UCAM Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Balsicas Atlético or draw
60%
Balsicas Atlético or UCAM Murcia II
74%
Draw or UCAM Murcia II
66%

Winning margin

Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+
15%
UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals
71%
Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals
36%
Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals
13%
UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
75%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
40%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)
46%
UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balsicas Atlético at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balsicas Atlético attack 1.35 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Balsicas Atlético scores more
34%
level
26%
UCAM Murcia II scores more
40%

UCAM Murcia II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Balsicas Atlético 0 – 0 UCAM Murcia II

Balsicas Atlético and UCAM Murcia II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de Balsicas in Torre-Pacheco.