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Balsicas Atlético vs SFC Minerva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Balsicas Atlético
Balsicas Atlético
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
SFC Minerva
SFC Minerva
5/3/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Balsicas Atlético44%
×Draw25%
SFC Minerva31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balsicas Atlético
1.51
SFC Minerva
1.22

Balsicas Atlético creates 24% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 63 away

creates per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.35
SFC Minerva
1.03

allows per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.41
SFC Minerva
1.67

finishing

Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par
SFC Minerva+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balsicas Atlético ↓

SFC Minerva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Balsicas Atlético or draw
69%
Balsicas Atlético or SFC Minerva
75%
Draw or SFC Minerva
56%

Winning margin

Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+
22%
SFC Minerva wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals
78%
Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals
44%
Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals
19%
SFC Minerva 1+ goals
70%
SFC Minerva 2+ goals
34%
SFC Minerva 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)
59%
SFC Minerva (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balsicas Atlético at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

SFC Minerva away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.67 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balsicas Atlético attack 1.35 + SFC Minerva defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.51

SFC Minerva attack 1.03 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Balsicas Atlético scores more
44%
level
25%
SFC Minerva scores more
31%

Balsicas Atlético at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Balsicas Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balsicas Atlético vs SFC Minerva

Balsicas Atlético beat SFC Minerva 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 3, 2026.