Balsicas Atlético 1–2 Santa Cruz: Result & Stats

Balsicas Atlético

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Santa Cruz

10/26/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Balsicas Atlético30%

×Draw27%

Santa Cruz43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Balsicas AtléticoExpected goals in this matchSanta Cruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.35

Balsicas Atlético

1.08

Santa Cruz

1.35

Santa Cruz creates 25% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.35

creates per match

1.29

1.41

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Balsicas Atlético

1.35

Santa Cruz

1.29

allows per match

Balsicas Atlético

1.41

Santa Cruz

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par

Santa Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balsicas Atlético ↓

Santa Cruz →

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Balsicas Atlético or draw

57%

Balsicas Atlético or Santa Cruz

73%

Draw or Santa Cruz

70%

Winning margin

Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+

12%

Santa Cruz wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals

66%

Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals

29%

Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals

10%

Santa Cruz 1+ goals

74%

Santa Cruz 2+ goals

39%

Santa Cruz 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)

41%

Santa Cruz (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Balsicas Atlético at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Santa Cruz away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Balsicas Atlético attack 1.35 + Santa Cruz defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.08

Santa Cruz attack 1.29 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Balsicas Atlético scores more

30%

level

27%

Santa Cruz scores more

43%

Santa Cruz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Santa Cruz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff