Balsicas Atlético 2–0 Real Murcia II

Balsicas Atlético

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Murcia II

5/4/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 33Campo de futbol Club Deportivo Mediterráneo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Balsicas Atlético35%

×Draw27%

Real Murcia II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Balsicas AtléticoExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.32

Balsicas Atlético

1.25

Real Murcia II

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 111 away

1.35

creates per match

1.24

1.41

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Balsicas Atlético

1.35

Real Murcia II

1.24

allows per match

Balsicas Atlético

1.41

Real Murcia II

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par

Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balsicas Atlético ↓

Real Murcia II →

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Balsicas Atlético or draw

62%

Balsicas Atlético or Real Murcia II

73%

Draw or Real Murcia II

65%

Winning margin

Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+

15%

Real Murcia II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals

71%

Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals

36%

Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals

13%

Real Murcia II 1+ goals

73%

Real Murcia II 2+ goals

38%

Real Murcia II 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)

48%

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Balsicas Atlético at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Real Murcia II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Balsicas Atlético attack 1.35 + Real Murcia II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Real Murcia II attack 1.24 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Balsicas Atlético scores more

35%

level

27%

Real Murcia II scores more

38%

Real Murcia II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Balsicas Atlético 2–0 Real Murcia II

Balsicas Atlético beat Real Murcia II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de futbol Club Deportivo Mediterráneo in Cartagena.

Balsicas Atlético vs Real Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Balsicas Atlético 2–0 Real Murcia II