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Balsicas Atlético vs Racing Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Balsicas Atlético
Balsicas Atlético
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Racing Murcia
Racing Murcia
5/11/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 34Campo de Fútbol de Balsicas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Balsicas Atlético35%
×Draw27%
Racing Murcia38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balsicas Atlético
1.21
Racing Murcia
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 62 away

creates per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.35
Racing Murcia
1.13

allows per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.41
Racing Murcia
1.06

finishing

Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par
Racing Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balsicas Atlético ↓

Racing Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Balsicas Atlético or draw
62%
Balsicas Atlético or Racing Murcia
73%
Draw or Racing Murcia
65%

Winning margin

Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+
15%
Racing Murcia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals
70%
Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals
34%
Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals
12%
Racing Murcia 1+ goals
72%
Racing Murcia 2+ goals
36%
Racing Murcia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)
48%
Racing Murcia (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balsicas Atlético at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Racing Murcia away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balsicas Atlético attack 1.35 + Racing Murcia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Racing Murcia attack 1.13 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Balsicas Atlético scores more
35%
level
27%
Racing Murcia scores more
38%

Racing Murcia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Racing Murcia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balsicas Atlético vs Racing Murcia

Balsicas Atlético beat Racing Murcia 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de Balsicas in Torre-Pacheco.