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Balsicas Atlético vs Mazarrón FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Balsicas Atlético
Balsicas Atlético
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mazarrón FC
Mazarrón FC
4/5/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Balsicas Atlético38%
×Draw26%
Mazarrón FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balsicas Atlético
1.34
Mazarrón FC
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 63 away

creates per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.35
Mazarrón FC
1.21

allows per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.41
Mazarrón FC
1.33

finishing

Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par
Mazarrón FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balsicas Atlético ↓

Mazarrón FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Balsicas Atlético or draw
64%
Balsicas Atlético or Mazarrón FC
74%
Draw or Mazarrón FC
62%

Winning margin

Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+
17%
Mazarrón FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals
74%
Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals
39%
Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals
15%
Mazarrón FC 1+ goals
73%
Mazarrón FC 2+ goals
38%
Mazarrón FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)
51%
Mazarrón FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balsicas Atlético at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Mazarrón FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balsicas Atlético attack 1.35 + Mazarrón FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Mazarrón FC attack 1.21 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Balsicas Atlético scores more
38%
level
26%
Mazarrón FC scores more
36%

Balsicas Atlético at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Balsicas Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Balsicas Atlético 0 – 0 Mazarrón FC

Balsicas Atlético and Mazarrón FC drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 5, 2026.