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Balsicas Atlético vs Lorca Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Balsicas Atlético
Balsicas Atlético
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Lorca Deportiva
Lorca Deportiva
9/15/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2Campo de futbol Club Deportivo Mediterráneo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Balsicas Atlético31%
×Draw26%
Lorca Deportiva44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balsicas Atlético
1.21
Lorca Deportiva
1.49

Lorca Deportiva creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 80 away

creates per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.35
Lorca Deportiva
1.57

allows per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.41
Lorca Deportiva
1.06

finishing

Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par
Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balsicas Atlético ↓

Lorca Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Balsicas Atlético or draw
56%
Balsicas Atlético or Lorca Deportiva
74%
Draw or Lorca Deportiva
69%

Winning margin

Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+
13%
Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals
70%
Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals
34%
Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals
12%
Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals
77%
Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals
44%
Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)
41%
Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balsicas Atlético at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Lorca Deportiva away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balsicas Atlético attack 1.35 + Lorca Deportiva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Lorca Deportiva attack 1.57 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Balsicas Atlético scores more
31%
level
26%
Lorca Deportiva scores more
44%

Lorca Deportiva at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balsicas Atlético vs Lorca Deportiva

Lorca Deportiva beat Balsicas Atlético 5-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de futbol Club Deportivo Mediterráneo in Cartagena.