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Balsicas Atlético vs Deportiva Minera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Balsicas Atlético
Balsicas Atlético
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Deportiva Minera
Deportiva Minera
1/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 16Campo de Fútbol de Balsicas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Balsicas Atlético42%
×Draw26%
Deportiva Minera32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balsicas Atlético
1.46
Deportiva Minera
1.25

Balsicas Atlético creates 17% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 78 away

creates per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.35
Deportiva Minera
1.08

allows per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.41
Deportiva Minera
1.56

finishing

Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par
Deportiva Minera+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balsicas Atlético ↓

Deportiva Minera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Balsicas Atlético or draw
68%
Balsicas Atlético or Deportiva Minera
74%
Draw or Deportiva Minera
58%

Winning margin

Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+
20%
Deportiva Minera wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals
77%
Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals
43%
Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals
18%
Deportiva Minera 1+ goals
71%
Deportiva Minera 2+ goals
36%
Deportiva Minera 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)
56%
Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balsicas Atlético at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Deportiva Minera away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.56 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balsicas Atlético attack 1.35 + Deportiva Minera defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Deportiva Minera attack 1.08 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Balsicas Atlético scores more
42%
level
26%
Deportiva Minera scores more
32%

Balsicas Atlético at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Balsicas Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balsicas Atlético vs Deportiva Minera

Deportiva Minera beat Balsicas Atlético 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de Balsicas in Torre-Pacheco.