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Balsicas Atlético vs Algar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Balsicas Atlético
Balsicas Atlético
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Algar
Algar
3/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 25Polideportivo Municipal de Roldán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Balsicas Atlético52%
×Draw25%
Algar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balsicas Atlético
1.65
Algar
1.03

Balsicas Atlético creates 60% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.35
Algar
0.65

allows per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.41
Algar
1.94

finishing

Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par
Algar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balsicas Atlético ↓

Algar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Balsicas Atlético or draw
76%
Balsicas Atlético or Algar
75%
Draw or Algar
48%

Winning margin

Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+
28%
Algar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals
81%
Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals
49%
Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals
23%
Algar 1+ goals
64%
Algar 2+ goals
28%
Algar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)
69%
Algar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balsicas Atlético at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Algar away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balsicas Atlético attack 1.35 + Algar defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.65

Algar attack 0.65 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Balsicas Atlético scores more
52%
level
25%
Algar scores more
24%

Balsicas Atlético at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Balsicas Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Balsicas Atlético 2–2 Algar

Balsicas Atlético and Algar drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal de Roldán in Roldán.